The powerplay is a phase you can only lose

Six overs of maximum aggression buys less than teams think, and the downside when it fails is far larger than the upside when it works.

Count what a spectacular powerplay is actually worth. Say a very good six overs produces seventy runs instead of a solid fifty. That is twenty runs, in a format where totals sit near one eighty. Useful. Not decisive.

Now count the other side. A powerplay that goes wrong at three wickets down leaves the middle order rebuilding for eight overs, which costs far more than twenty runs, because those overs are spent at four an over by players who would otherwise be scoring at nine. The distribution is lopsided. The best case is a bonus. The worst case is the match.

That asymmetry should shape how sides bat in the first six, and for most teams it does not. The default has become maximum intent from ball one, justified by an appeal to expected value that would only hold if the innings could absorb the failures. It cannot, because wickets are not a currency you can spend evenly. Losing three in the powerplay does not simply cost you three tenths of your resources. It removes the players who were going to attack later.

What I would want instead is intent that is conditional. Attack the bowler who is offering width. Attack the fifth and sixth overs, when the field is still up but the ball is older and the pace is off. Leave the opening bowler who is swinging it and take four an over off him without apology. That is not caution. It is choosing which of the six overs to spend the risk on, which is a different discipline from being aggressive throughout.

The chase version is stronger still, and it is where the orthodoxy does most damage. Chasing a target, the required rate is known, and there is almost never a case for risking wickets early against a good ball when the same runs are available later against weaker bowling. Teams keep doing it because the graphic showing the required rate creeping up makes everyone anxious.

And there is a selection effect in the evidence. Sides that post huge powerplay scores also tend to have the best batters, so the correlation between fast starts and winning is real and mostly not causal.

Bat well in the first six. Do not try to win the game there. It is not on offer.