Transitions are won by the first pass, not the first sprint

Every counter attack lives or dies on one difficult ball played by a tired defender within two seconds of winning it.

The way transitions get described, you would think they were a running competition. Win the ball, everybody sprint, fastest team wins. Watch a hundred counters and it is not that at all.

The moment that decides it is the first pass, and the first pass is usually played by whoever won the ball, which is usually a defender or a defensive midfielder, under contact, off balance, with the game still moving in the wrong direction. He has about a second and a half before the opponent's counterpress arrives. In that second and a half he has to look up, find the runner who has already gone, and hit a pass over forty yards with weight and side on it.

That is a hard skill. It is also, historically, the last skill anybody thought about when signing a holding midfielder.

Get it wrong in the obvious way, hit it too hard or too straight, and the goalkeeper collects it and the whole thing was for nothing. Get it wrong in the subtler way, take an extra touch to steady yourself, and the runner is offside or the defensive line has recovered, and the attack becomes a possession phase against a set defence, which is the outcome you were trying to avoid.

Everything after that pass matters far less than we pretend. The finishing gets analysed to death, the sprinting gets a graphic, and the pass that created the situation is described as a nice ball.

This is why I think the most underpriced skill in the game right now is long passing accuracy under pressure from deep positions. Not range. Anybody can hit it seventy yards. Accuracy, in the two seconds after a tackle, with a body between you and the target.

The clubs that have figured this out are the ones playing a centre-back who looks slightly odd on paper, a converted midfielder or someone whose defending is merely adequate, and paying for the passing. It looks like a compromise. Watch where their goals start.

Most of them start with one ball played before the opponent had finished falling over.